CALM BEFORE THE STORM
INTRODUCTION TO GOOD-BAD PLANNING: June 13, 2010
Poor planning, aka 'stinking thinking' or worse "thinking without consequence” usually ends up in a headline. This incident was no exception. People hate when you question their thinking and all my life I made a few friends and lots more enemies with my devils advocate approach to things. In some cases these decisions or looking at the picture from both sides probably saved my life and their asses. Being the advocate didn't make enemies, it's the part "I told you so”.
COLLECTIVE THINKING
In his book, former military Joint Chiefs of Staff Commander, and Secretary of State, Colin Powell speaks and welcomed his junior officers comments allowing them to question his judgement.
As long as it was open and pertinent to the mission at hand. He wanted to know the adverse consequence of his actions so he could balance his thinking. Maybe they had some intel he was not aware of.
Maybe a hunch, maybe some better insight, whatever it was it took the "what-ifs" out of the equation and put all on the same page. It works. You make less mistakes that way. Open lines of accurate information are essential to good choices. The last administration had no clue of that type of thinking. De-regulate, and let capitalism have it's way. Wild west thinking and consequence, may be the root cause of most of the problems in the US.
Great men have great approaches to management and control. They build coalitions, partnerships and trusts. Trust is built not by a chain of command but a chain of participation. We call it teamwork, some call it "being on the same page". That is not the case in this catastrophe.
This is about bottom lines, money, greed, and some big players who only thought about themselves and it will surface when the digging begins. I saw some of it during the Coast Guard Horizon inquiry which has already started. And well it should. This is not so much about violations of safety as it is a corporate mentality and government complicity. Very similar to the mining accidents.. and the Wall street crisis, andthe Mortgage crisis, the Auto industry, and the destruction of the middle class due to offshore treaties and open doors.
INSANITY, THE COCKPIT, ACCIDENTS
Again I invoke Einstein's Theory of Insanity. Do the same thing over and over again the same way and expect a different conclusion. I learned early in aviations test bed, the cockpit, that bad ideas and bad sloppy habits don't just go away.
I flew with a fellow for years. He was a sloppy, light the fires, kick the tires, and lets go kind of pilot. After a couple days of severe rain, I needed the airplane. He and his son had been up that morning. I asked, "how did she run", he replied, "great".
I rechecked the fuel tanks for water contamination because that was my responsibility as Pilot in Command and it was my first time flying this craft for the day. I trust nothing, by nature. I drew samples with the gas tester and pulled more than a quart of water out of both wing tanks. A long screaming session followed.
Water and gas are clear, but you can pour the sample on concrete to see if it bubbles, and you smell it in the tester. He did neither. We drained the fuel tank sumps, three on the Cherokee, two under the wings and another aft of the cowl on the belly, of all water, added gas and a water dissolver, duck taped the caps and I took off. I ordered new gasket material (a special neoprene) and I had made cookie cutters to duplicate factory fitted new gaskets for the fuel tank fillers the next day. I never trusted him again and we never took on water again, condensation is normal, thus fuel sumps.
He maintained a sloppy cockpit, and one day it bit him. A $3.95 all metal Eveready Flashlight was loose between the seats. He was landing in St. Augustine in a Piper Comanche 250, an Eveready metal flashlight got caught between the metal pump down landing lever on the floor, and the green switches that indicated gear down. He had three green. He didn't need the brakes to stop, the propeller did a nice job of carving the runway as he slid to a perfect belly landing. 100% pilot error.
THE PERFECT STORM
Ever since I read the book and saw the movie "The Perfect Storm", I agree totally with assessments that a large percentage of these catastrophes are a chain of these smaller events mixed into one place in time and space together, combined with poor assessment and decision making, caused this spill. Note: Time and space are connected according to Einstein which may allow time travel eventually.
Just like a simple flashlight could cause a catastrophe, so could a chain of minor events bury a Gulf, the environment for decades and the livelihood and lives of thousands. The melding, the "perfect storm" is going to become very prevalent in the search for why this happened and who cut the corners. It really breaks down evidentiary wise as: I see seven ares of concern.
- Regulatory - Regulations dropped by secret Cheney Panel in 2001,
- Procedural - Failure to follow existing safety codes resulting in unanswered violations.
- Federal safety oversight - Examiners working for the examined were too cozy.
- Human Error - Failure to note disturbances in the dark side.
- Communication - If we ignore it , it will go away, no follow up or rechecking.
- BP Management oversight - Shortcuts for the glory of Oil, which replaced God.
- Usual greed, bribes, money and power players. Who should be fired, shot or thrown down a well hole but I realize that will not happen.
PREDICTION - WE WILL BE SCREWED
Bottom line, some big names will be involved and they will walk away as usual. Some of them are too big to fail. They will be publicly chastised for the effect, and when, not if, they get the hatchet, and blamed for the losses, they will probably wind up with a 50 million dollar severance package. (see Tony Haywood and others)
Thus, they are fixed for life and could care less. I keep thinking of those 11 men and their families. And I keep thinking of those families of the 29 coal miners and kids growing up without a daddy because safety regulations were ignored in favor of production. The similarities between the two tragedies are uncanny. Same list could be used for both in context.
I think of all those who Katrina ruined and the last administration never kept the heat on to help those folks, just photo ops, more great words, and their remarkable comeback if even only about 60% only to get hit again. That's the problem, I can't stop thinking.
Add all this up and you get the common denominator… DEREGULATION, the same problem with banking, wall street, the mortgage bubble and a lack of impartial over-site with clout.
When I was last asked who I thought could fix this broken chain of events which has led to all these disasters and fraud, I replied Josef Stalin, he'd have to shoot a few for treason. We don't have a government we have a cartel. This mess is an entanglement of both the government, big business, money, greed, politics and bribes, graft, payoffs, stupidity, neglect, carelessness and recklessness, and when the time comes, possibly manslaughter.
BIG BUSINESS RUNS THE US
Does the Oil Spill Scenario sound familiar. "BP too big to fail", all the lobbyists and those in Congress who are bribed by this consortium of black death are suddenly very quiet. Including the former Vice President.
Sounds all to familiar like the Housing failure, and the Bank failures, all over again and say what they will, the US taxpayer will be the one to suffer either in higher gas bills, somehow BP cutting off their payments, moving offshore (moving?, they are already offshore) like Halliburton did to avoid US taxes, or stalling and beating the rap.
The big greedy corporations will kill the country. A government is supposed to protect the people. During the Bush Administration a lot of deregulation prevailed and a lot of folks made money on the backs of those who couldn't afford it and many are tax-free based on loopholes they achieved through lobbying.
Thank McCain while you are at it. His crew helped The 1999 Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act which broke down barriers between banks, securities firms, mortgage lenders and insurance companies. That deregulation repealed Great Depression-era bank regulations with the approval of former President Bill Clinton. That explained the mortgage crisis. Deregulation and lack of over site which vanishes with deregulation is good for two things. Votes and profits. The downside is destruction and possibly death. Oil spills have now proven that theory.
WAKE UP AMERICA
Someone needs to really go after the crew that cut the corners. BP, Halliburton, the MMS administration for starters. I got a bundle bet they will squirm. And get away with it.
Let me simplify the "deregulation" theory. You have a henhouse. There are foxes nearby. So you hire a wolf who tells you he has your best interests in hand to protect the henhouse from the Foxes who are afraid of wolves. Next week you check on the hens and the henhouse is empty, the Wolf is gone and you are screwed. Moral of the story, a hen in the hand is safer then any hen around a Bush.
RELEASE THE KRACKEN
If I were a novel writer I would describe it as literally a demon from below looking to escape the confines of centuries of imprisonment. In 2010 the Clash of the Titans (2010 film), a remake of the 1981 film of the tales of Perseus has a scene where this terrifying monster from the deep emerges to try save the day for the bad guys. It escaped with a fury unheard of and sought revenge. But this is not a novel, a TV series, nor a good movie, it is a sad, very sad true story that shares many of it's core elements with the other problems we have today in this country.
This is my insight into the Deepwater Horizon disaster. After the immediate needs of those involved, after the reports are compiled, the villains sought, the fingers pointed, eventually the truth will come out.
It will be a collection of mistakes, misuse and several familiar terms, keywords and phrases like "To big to fail", "Big Business", "Deregulation", "Greed", "Oversight Failures" and "Technology Obsolescence".
It will lead eventually to more hearings and the hearings may lead to criminal charges. At least on the TV and in the papers. BP had a battle plan going in the first hours of the disaster. In fact their MEDIA section was 55% of the entire disaster manual. The section that covered media was the largest protocol of the plan and it was to save face.
There will be many lawsuits on many levels and sources told me in the initial realization of what happened, BP had enlisted the aid of over 100 lawyers to prepare for the lawsuits forthcoming which in a sense of sadistic humor brought up an old joke. "What do you have when 100 lawyers drown on a sinking oil rig".
The old answer was water pollution, the new answer is redemption. Already the ads are portraying BP's hired hands, looking like the good guys. "We are here to help". And our government has a serious PR problem too because no one usually believes what they have to say especially after eight years of lies and there is proof of wrongdoing surfacing.
Already the blame game is doing well and the pointed fingers are out. And as they have proven in the past, it will be a charade. I hope they are not that hollow this time. The truth is most of the Politicos and the Judges all made tons of money with oil stocks and futures and who is going to prosecute their benefactor. It stinks and it hasn't even stated yet.
THE INNOCENTS
The results are horrendous - May they rest in peace - the senseless deaths of 11 men working the BP rig. Nothing can mend that. Even with heroic efforts of their co-workers and rescue personnel. The next phase is the resultant impact on our environment.
Under stated, as all the damage will take decades to surface and correct if it does, this disaster is the worst in our nation’s history. Sure BP will lend financial aid to those affected this year but what happens when the fisheries, marshes and breeding grounds, oyster and clam beds, rookeries and the beaches and beach life don't fully return to normal for many years and years after that will the way of life return?